The leaders of the United States, China and Russia plan to meet Thursday on the sidelines of next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China's tech hub of Shenzhen, an unprecedented gathering of the heads of the world's biggest nuclear powers. The White House confirmed the three-way summit with Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin on Friday, November 13.

The meeting comes at a complicated moment for the three countries. Trump has warmly embraced Xi after a truce in their short-lived trade war last year, despite differences over the US war with Iran and other tensions between the world's foremost economic powers. Trump has also sought to build his relationship with Putin, even as the Russian leader persists in his nearly five-year-old war with Ukraine and Moscow deepens its military, intelligence and diplomatic partnership with Iran.S1S2

Trump has said the meeting would give the three leaders a chance to discuss the Iran war and his goal of a three-way agreement on nuclear arsenals. A senior US official said Trump plans to raise Iran with Xi and Putin but will steer away from Ukraine. The official described the meeting as a beginning for a conversation on nuclear disarmament and said no agreements are expected to be announced.S1S2

The backdrop is the expiry of New START, the last nuclear arms pact between Russia and the United States, in February. Its expiry removed caps on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than half a century. Trump rejected a Russian call to extend the deal for another year and instead called for a new, improved and modernised agreement that includes China. Beijing's arsenal of more than 600 warheads, according to Pentagon estimates, is far smaller than the more than 5,000 warheads each held by the US and Russia, and China has shown little interest in a nuclear pact. A US official said China should step up to the adult table on the issue.S1S2

Analysts expect little in the way of breakthroughs, with the talks likely to be heavier on symbolism than substance. Edgard Kagan, a former US ambassador to Malaysia now at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said he would be shocked if a joint statement mentioned denuclearisation. Xi, as host, may see the moment as a chance to show China's growing clout and prestige, while the Kremlin views the gathering as a way to project geopolitical strength.S1S2