President Donald Trump declared on Thursday that the United States no longer needs a deal with Iran, just three days after suggesting the eight-month war was nearing its end. In a post on Truth Social he wrote, "We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed," adding that Washington had control of Iran's money, which he described as hundreds of billions of dollars, and of the Strait of Hormuz.

The remarks marked a sharp departure from Monday, when Trump described the war as "militarily effectively over" following discussions with Qatar's prime minister and suggested renewed military strikes were unlikely. On November 2 he had also claimed Iran wanted an agreement. Those optimistic statements had helped drive Brent crude down roughly 25% from its late-October high of $118 as traders reassessed the geopolitical risk premium, but Thursday's comments reversed that trend, with Brent initially surging before trimming its gains to trade around $93.79 per barrel, up about 1.1%.S1

Iran has shown little willingness to soften its position. Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran would not remove any enriched nuclear material from the country. Iran also claimed that four tankers had been struck by explosions over two days, including supertankers allegedly using unauthorized shipping routes, though those accounts have not been independently verified.S1

Within Washington, the shift also touched the administration's own diplomacy. Trump directed Vice President JD Vance, who had been involved in efforts to resolve the war, to focus "his complete and total attention" instead on alleged fraud and crime in Democratic-run cities and states. The directive came a day after the Wall Street Journal reported that Vance was considering face-to-face peace talks with a hard-line Iranian security official, a report Reuters has not confirmed, and a week after Vance blamed the costly war for Republicans' midterm election losses. Trump defended the war as necessary to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.S2

Physical supply has meanwhile improved. Saudi Arabia reported a 26% increase in October production and Iraq has also raised output, but shipments still depend on alternative routes, ship-to-ship transfers and military protection. Normal shipping conditions have not returned, leaving oil futures unusually sensitive to diplomatic statements and renewed threats against tankers.S1